Sea of red ink, despite `cautious optimism'
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State economists express "cautious optimism" about the national and state economy, but the red ink is still running.
A new report Monday from the state Economic and Revenue Forecast Council here says the Wall Street rally, an uptick in housing, and other positive signs seem to point to the recession starting to turn around this fall. But the report says the national data aren't showing up in Washington yet because of reporting lags. State job losses are expected to continue through the end of the year, with no help from Boeing and Microsoft, and exports, housing and car sales are the weakest in years.
Bottom line for lawmakers who are wrestling with a $9 billion two-year budget gap: Tax collections are $55 million below the March forecast. Sales taxes are down nearly 20 percent year-over-year and business & occupation taxes down over 10 percent. Sales tax receipts for the fourth quarter of 2008 were the worst year-over-year drop on record. Real estate transactions were off $8 million or nearly 30 percent below the March forecast. Counties said transactions were down over 47 percent from a year earlier.
Other than that ...
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Secretary of State
Steve Hobbs
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