Initiative error rates vary from year to year
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A new Elections Division posting shows a wide variety of error rates over the past two decades. The average has been about 18.5 percent.
Twenty of the 57 initiatives and referenda checked since 1990 had invalidation rates of 20 percent or more. The biggest invalidation rates were tribal gaming measures in 1995 and 1996, with error rates of 27.46 percent and 26.61 percent, for I-651 and I-671, respectively. More recently, a medical malpractice initiative to the Legislature sponsored by trial lawyers, I-336, in 2005, had an invalidation rate of 26.10 percent, and a renewable energy measure, I-937, posted a 24.33 percent rejection rate in 2006. Of those four measures, only the energy initiative was approved by the voters.
At the other end of the scale were a handful of measures with between 10 and 13 percent. The lowest or "cleanest" of the bunch was a measure dealing with a late-term abortion procedure, I-694 in 1998, with an error rate of just 10.53 percent. Close behind: I-593 in 1993, the "three strikes and you're out" law, 11.33 percent; and R-55 in 2004, authorizing charter schools, 11.69 percent. Several were in the 12 percent range, including this year's I-1033, dealing with caps in state, county and city general fund revenue growth, 12.14 percent; last year's I-1000 dealing with the terminally ill, 12.27 percent; I-607 in 1994, dealing with denturists, 12.72 percent; and I-601 in 1993, limiting state spending growth to inflation plus population growth, 12.5 percent. The abortion restriction and charter school measure were turned down by; the others were approved by voters, except for the one that is pending for November, I-1033.
The error rate for the other potential ballot measure for this year, R-71, dealing with benefits for state-registered domestic partners, has been running around 11 to 12 percent.
One footnote: It's very unusual to have an every-signature check, as is occurring for R-71. In the two decades covered by this study, full checks were needed only for I-655 in 2002, dealing with bear-baiting; I-917 in 2006, dealing with car tabs; and I-534 in 1990 dealing with pornography. Only I-655 was validated to the ballot; it passed.
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Secretary of State
Steve Hobbs
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