Reports: Rosier days coming
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We've been tracking the economic and revenue forecasts for you during this blankety-blank recession, cringing as it created a monster budget gap for governments everywhere and cost a lot of fine folks their jobs. Now the news is getting better: the "bottoming out" of the Great Recession is getting closer and Washington could be one of first to see daylight.
The state's economists, led by Arun Raha at the state Forecast Council, say in a fresh report, "We believe the recession will officially end sometime in the third quarter (July-September). ... Growth turns slightly positive in the second half of 2009, but remains weak for a year, picking up steam in the second half of 2010 and 2011."
Washington continues to shed jobs and the jobless rate could peak at 10.6 percent this winter before the turnaround starts to stabilize employment. Construction, housing permits, business and professional services and aerospace all are still weak, but high-wage software job losses are easing. The report says:
"...There are signs that the recession's end is nearing. ... The local economy is expected to bottom out at about the same time as the national economy with positive, but weak, job growth resuming in early 2010."
Meanwhile, the folks over at The Olympian note a report carried by msnbc.com that says Washington could be a Top 5 "early riser," coming out the recession with job growth earlier than the rest.
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Secretary of State
Steve Hobbs
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