Revenue update: Amnesty helped, but recovery lags

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Washington's forecast has ballooned 13.3 percent, by nearly $158 million in the past two months, almost entirely because of a now-expired amnesty program for repaying past-due taxes without penalty. But the state Revenue Forecast Council, in a sober revenue update today, said that's a one-time pickup and that the state economic recovery lags and that without the amnesty program, the bottom line would actually be down nearly $27 million, or 2.2 percent below the March forecast. That's not a lot, compared with a $32 billion budget, but it does show that the state economy continues to sputter. The report by chief economist Arun Raha brought no good news for legislative budget-writers who are struggling to craft a House-Senate compromise that patches a $5 billion hole in the two-year spending program for state government. He wrote:

"The economic recovery has hit yet another bump in the road. "The Washington economy continued to grow but at a slower pace in February and March after fairly strong growth at the end of 2010 and early 2011. Aerospace and software are expanding, but construction remains in a prolonged slump. Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and North Africa boosted oil and gasoline prices, eroding consumers’ purchasing power and confidence. The Japanese earthquake and tsunami continues to pose a threat to the state’s recovery. Japan is the state’s third largest export market. Eventually, reconstruction activity will be a plus for our state’s economy but in the near term the devastation has disrupted supply chains and reduced demand for Washington products."