Re: Rosier days coming

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A fairly optimistic new report says Washington's state General Fund tax collections were up over $91 million during the last month, compared with a forecast made by state economists in March. Overall, in the weeks and months since the last formal forecast, collections are about what was predicted (down just $4.9 million in a $35 billion budget). One asterisk notes that property taxes came in earlier than expected, and that a more normal payment schedule would have caused a cumulative shortfall of about $166 million. The sales and business taxes and other "Revenue Act" collections have been about $138 million below expected levels, down about 14 percent over the same period a year ago. It's a glass-half full report. The update notes that the U.S. banking industry is stabilizing and credit beginning to flow again. The report prepared for the Gregoire Administration and the Legislature says "we are by no means out of the woods" but adds:

"The freefall in the Washington economy appears to be abating."

Job losses are moderating, pending home sales last month jumped 18 percent over the year-ago level, and inflation is moderating, the report says. The state Forecast Council meets next Thursday, June 18, televised by TVW, www.tvw.org, to adopt a new revenue forecast. It's expected to be lower than the March forecast lawmakers used in writing a new two-year budget that closed a $9 billion spending gap. The Legislature and Governor left a reserve balance of roughly $650 million, hoping it's enough to cover several more downticks in the revenue forecast.